Florida's Final Poll Is a Dead Heat for Governor: Donalds 50.9, Jolly 49.1 Among Decided Voters, With One in Five Still Undecided
The last survey read before Election Day also gives Ashley Moody a clearer Senate edge and leaves Amendment 3 far below the 60 percent it needs — with more than a third of voters still undecided on the tax measure.
The race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis is essentially tied among Floridians who have made up their minds, according to a survey of 500 likely voters conducted October 26-28 by Political Matrix and The Listener Group and read in full this cycle. Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 40.3 percent to 38.8 percent among all respondents, with 20.9 percent undecided; among decided voters, the split is 50.9 to 49.1. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 points.
The survey lines up with the other closing polls. The final Jolly-Donalds polls show Donalds ahead by 2 to 4 points — a University of North Florida survey at 49-47 and St. Pete Polls, fielded October 25-27, at 47.8 to 45.5, inside its margin of error. Prediction markets are less convinced the race is that close on paper but price the same favorite: Donalds at 70 cents on Polymarket and 69 cents on Kalshi heading into Tuesday.
The Senate special election is clearer in every closing measure. The Political Matrix survey gives Republican Ashley Moody 41.8 percent to Democrat Angie Nixon's 35.8, with 22.4 percent undecided, and the other final polls put Moody ahead by 4 to 8 points. Amendment 3, which would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, draws 32.8 percent support against 31.3 percent opposed, with 35.8 percent undecided — 51.2 to 48.8 among decided voters, well short of the 60 percent the amendment needs to pass. With undecideds that large in all three contests, the pollsters' own conclusion is the honest one for Tallahassee readers: Tuesday's turnout, not any final survey, decides this election.
