Florida's Last Poll Before Election Day: Moody Leads Nixon 53 to 46 for Senate, Donalds Leads Jolly 51 to 47 for Governor

The last Florida poll released before Election Day keeps the state red — narrowly. Research Co.'s final survey, published Monday, puts Republican Ashley Moody ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon 53 percent to 46 percent in the U.S. Senate race, and Republican Byron Donalds ahead of Democrat David Jolly 51 percent to 47 percent in the race for governor.

The Senate race is for the remainder of the term Secretary of State Marco Rubio left behind; Moody was appointed to the seat and is asking voters to keep her in it against Nixon, a Jacksonville state representative. The governor's race decides the successor to term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis: Donalds, a U.S. representative, would be Florida's first Black governor, and Jolly, a former Republican congressman turned Democrat, is trying to win the office for his party for the first time since Lawton Chiles in 1994.

The numbers come with the poll's own cautions printed on them. Research Co. surveyed 450 likely voters in Florida online between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2, weighted to census age and gender figures, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points — which puts the four-point governor's margin inside the error band even as it favors Donalds, while Moody's seven-point Senate lead sits outside it.

Other final reads point the same direction with different spreads: the polling average displayed on Kalshi's market page Monday put Donalds at 48.1 percent and Jolly at 43.4 percent, while its traders priced the race at 61 to 39 for Donalds — figures the page itself cautions are market odds, not votes. What none of the surveys can price is Tuesday itself: Florida Republicans have built their closing argument on Election Day turnout, and more than 5.4 million Floridians have already voted. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time Tuesday.