The Final Senate Polls Put Democrats Ahead in Five Republican-Held States — and Senate Control Genuinely in Play on Tuesday
New York Times/Siena surveys read on Election Eve show Democratic leads from Texas to Maine, with the president's approval at 38 percent in the battlegrounds.
The last major polling of the midterm campaign, read in reports this cycle, shows Democrats leading Senate races in five states Republicans currently hold. The New York Times/Siena surveys put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, 50 percent to 43 percent, and Democrat Chris Hamilton ahead of Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas, 49 to 44 — two states where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988 and 1932 respectively, the report noted.
The pattern repeats across the map: Graham Platner leads Senator Susan Collins in Maine, 51 to 45; Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted in Ohio, 49 to 44; Democrats also lead in Alaska and in Michigan, which they hold, while Iowa is virtually tied. Across the seven surveyed states, President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 38 percent — a weak figure, the report noted, in states he mostly won by double digits in 2024 — and Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on the cost of living, the issue voters in the surveys kept naming first.
The national picture points the same way, which is why Tuesday matters in Tallahassee too. An NBC News poll read this cycle gave Democrats a 52-to-45 lead on which party should control Congress, with Trump's approval at 38 percent and disapproval at 60 percent. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate and three to take the House, where all 435 seats and 35 Senate seats are decided on November 3 — including Florida's own Senate race between Senator Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon, on the same ballot Tallahassee voters cast Tuesday.
