Florida Republicans Say They Are Not Sweating the Early Vote — They Are Banking on Election Day
Democrats out-turned their numbers in Florida's early and mail voting, and Gov. Ron DeSantis sounded the alarm. The rest of his party's strategists say the Republican vote simply has not happened yet — it votes on Tuesday.
Florida's early vote closed with Democrats turning out in bigger numbers than they did four years ago, and Gov. Ron DeSantis spent the final week sounding the alarm about Republican turnout. The Florida Phoenix reported Monday that other Republican officials insist they have little to worry about — yet — because their voters, by habit, vote on Election Day itself.
'Democrats have already cashed their chips,' Republican strategist Anthony Pedicini said in an email to the Phoenix. 'Their most reliable voters have voted. Ours haven't yet, because Republican super-voters show up on Election Day. Anyone calling this race before Tuesday is reading half a tea leaf.' He added: 'No one should be celebrating anything in Florida until 7 p.m. Tuesday.' The pattern has recent evidence behind it: in the August primary, Republican Election Day turnout was double the Democrats' share, 60 percent to 30 percent.
The early numbers explain both the worry and the confidence. In traditionally red Polk County, registered Republicans had cast just 468 more votes than Democrats as of Friday morning despite holding a 13-point registration advantage. In Hillsborough County, Republicans overtook Democrats in registration in early 2025 and hold an edge of nearly 20,000 voters — yet Democrats led the early vote there by 18,312 ballots as of Thursday afternoon. Statewide, more than 4.4 million Floridians had voted by Friday afternoon, with Republicans casting 40.4 percent of ballots, Democrats 38.4 percent and others 21.2 percent, according to the University of Florida Election Lab tracker; the final pre-Election Day count reached 5.4 million ballots.
Democratic strategists, for their part, acknowledge the Republican Election Day surge is real — and argue it has to be enormous this year. Democratic strategist Jackson McMillan told the Phoenix Republicans would need to build something like a 25-point Election Day lead to feel comfortable in what he called an R+2 environment. By Tuesday night, Florida will know whether the surge arrived: polls close at 7 p.m. across most of the state.
