Florida Is Where a Blue Wave Would Show Itself: CNN's Election-Night Guide Puts Seven Florida Races on the Board
From Moskowitz in FL-25 to Nixon's long-shot run at Moody's Senate seat, CNN's Sunday guide reads Florida as a ladder of tests - hold the redrawn seats first, then the governor's race, then history.
If a Democratic wave is coming on Tuesday, CNN's election-night guide says Florida is one of the places it will show itself - rung by rung. In a survey of the races that will tell the night's story, published Sunday morning, CNN set out the Florida tests in order of difficulty, starting with whether Democrats can simply hold seats that Republican mapmakers redrew to tilt against them.
The baseline tests are reelection wins for Rep. Jared Moskowitz in FL-25, which CNN calls a sign of a positive trend for Democrats, and for Rep. Kathy Castor in FL-14, which would measure an even stronger current, as would a win for Rep. Darren Soto in FL-9 - another seat the GOP redrew to tilt right. Above that rung, victories in FL-13, held by Republican Anna Paulina Luna, or in the open FL-7 would mark a very good night for Florida Democrats - and so would a victory by Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican, over Byron Donalds in the governor's race that Tallahassee has watched all fall.
The top rungs are the historic ones. CNN says the storm reaches historic proportions if Democrats oust veteran GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in the heavily Hispanic FL-27, a seat President Donald Trump carried by 15 points, and reaches Category 5 levels if progressive Democrat Angie Nixon beats Republican Ashley Moody in the Florida Senate race. Florida's last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern, and the national frame matters here: CNN notes that late polling has given Democrats reason for optimism across Republican-leaning states, while Republicans are counting on turnout and a heavy spending advantage to hold the map. Which rung Florida reaches will be readable early - the governor's race and the redrawn House seats report with the rest of the state's returns on Tuesday night.
