Florida Republicans Hold a Thin Early-Vote Lead, and Their Governor's Race Now Rides on an Election Day Surge
Republicans led Democrats by just 2.8 points in Florida's early vote as of Saturday afternoon - far thinner than the last two cycles, despite an 11-point registration edge - and one published estimate puts Byron Donalds as many as 500,000 votes behind before Tuesday's polls open.
Florida Republicans are heading into Election Day with a smaller cushion than they are used to. As of Saturday afternoon, Republicans led Democrats by just 2.8 percentage points among early votes cast, according to a statewide report published Sunday - a much thinner margin than in the last two general elections, and one built despite an 11-point Republican advantage in voter registration.
The softness is concentrated where the Republican nominee for governor is weakest. In the 17 Panhandle and rural North Florida counties that Byron Donalds lost in his party's primary, Republican turnout is running 3.2 points below 2022 levels, according to University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald; in counties Donalds carried, the drop is 1.1 points. Democrats have already surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail vote total in 15 counties, while Republicans have done so in four. Internal Democratic and Republican estimates shared with Axios put Donalds as many as 500,000 votes behind by Election Day, which would require him to win Tuesday's vote by roughly two to one. Donalds holds a large financial edge - $176 million raised to Democrat David Jolly's $28 million.
Republicans answer that Tuesday is traditionally their day: about two-thirds of Florida voters usually cast ballots before Election Day, but the party outnumbers Democrats by about 1.5 million registered voters and counts on a deeper pool of reliable Election Day voters. State GOP chair Evan Power put the party's position plainly in the report: 'We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this.' Polls are open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
